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Fundamental Analysis
The euro seems to break its weekly high and approach the area of 1.24 which has become a strong resistance in recent days. The single currency demonstrated an interesting recovery on Thursday, after the German leader Angela Merkel supported the European Central Bank in their intention to start solving the issue of sovereign debt of countries with serious payment difficulties. After meeting the French leader Holland, and the Greek Prime Minister Samaras, Merkel made some remarks concerning steps that Europe is going to take in order to cope with the economic challenges.
However, the major currency pairs do not leave narrow price ranges. The euro and the pound sterling as well as the Swiss franc move in very sharp bands without getting investors' confidence in those currencies. Nor is favored the dollar, although the retail sales data and inflation account for a new, though warm, recovery of the U.S. economy.
The Dow Jones index futures demonstrated an uptrend which may extend to the rest of the day.
Returning to the leading currencies, the Australian dollar lost its dominant uptrend in the last hours after the Reserve Bank of Australia was set to perform another cut in interest rates in the near future. The Aussie benefited from interest rates that are well above those offered by major central banks, and also by the high level of trade between Australia and China. However, the slowdown of the Asian giant for the past two months has a great impact on the Australian economy which anyway has a very still solid core.
The Canadian dollar remains very strong, now below 0.99, favored by the stability of oil prices. Presently there is no threat for short term uptrend. Meanwhile, the yen is away from highs in recent weeks, and after the break of a trend line in the medium term, it accelerates downward direction (upward in the figures), seeking the 80.10 area with strong resistance.
EUR/USD Bearish Outlook
The euro traded yesterday above weekly support of 1.2324 which can be regarded as the relief from downward pressure. However, we are in the price range of 1.2440 and 1.2206, and the pair may fluctuate within these levels.
As you know, there are a lot of problems in Europe at this time, which prevented me from buying this coin. Furthermore, we must admit that the problem is so complex that it is easy to understand. This is one of the worst scenarios for investment.
The fact that the euro is doing very well could have a lot to do with the fact that almost no volatility at the moment.
So our long term outlook remains bearish. We may see a recovery of the euro if it comes out at the mentioned above price range. 1.26 may be a strong level of resistance.
In the short term we recommend selling at 1.2408 strong resistance level with targets at 1.2324 and 1.2210, the stop loss is placed above 1.2450.
GBP/USD Sell Below 1.5740
The pound sterling failed to hold above 1.5740 resistance, currently it is quoted below this level and it is likely that the downward pressure will bring it to 1.5640 next support level. It is possible that the currency will try to break this level again. If the attempt is unsuccessful, we recommend selling on the return 1.5732, with targets at 1.5646, the stop loss is placed above the highs of 1.5770.
The indicators are showing negative divergence.
